Identifying and adjusting demand trends is done by identifying all item/warehouse combinations that show a trend pattern in demand. By doing this, you can more accurately forecast demand. The information from a trend analysis is used when a forecast is calculated for an item.
Prerequisites
In order for an item to be considered during a trend analysis the following must be met:
- The warehouse must be activated for the item in the Item/Inventory management file.
- A demand must exist for the item/warehouse combination in Work with forecasts for all historical periods you want to analyse.
The resulting item(s) that will be included in the analysis depends on the selections you make coupled with the parameters you define for the trend definition in this routine. The Trend code field in the Item/Inventory management file dictates whether or not you want to use the results from the trend analysis to forecast demand for the item/warehouse combination. This field can be updated with YES or NO via the following three routines:
- Directly via this Print trend analysis/update routine (i.e. set Update trend code to YES). In the following instructions, you will update Trend code using this method. After generating a printout, the field will be updated for any applicable item/warehouse combinations.
- Via Work with trend codes. To use this routine for the update, set Update work file to YES when running the Print trend analysis/update routine. After generating a printout, any applicable items will be loaded into this work file allowing you to maintain the selected items (i.e. change some information and/or delete any items that you do not want to update) before updating the Item/Inventory management file. You perform the actual update via the Update option in Work with trend codes.
- Via the Start fast update routine. See About working with fast updates for more details. Note: This routine also allows you to interactively work with the demand trend values before the actual update in the Item/Supplier information file is done. This is described in Work with a demand trend analysis.
- Select the Print trend analysis/updates menu item.
- On the Trend list printout/update panel, use the selection fields to narrow down the number of selected items and click OK.
- You access the next panel. Complete the following fields:
- Number of periods
- Enter the number of historical periods to be included in this analysis. The system starts with the most recent historical period and goes back in time to include all the specified number of periods. You can go as far back as one year. This does not include the present period.
- Incr/decr in periods
- Enter the number of periods for which there must be an increase or decrease in demand in order for the item to be considered a trend item.
- Change percentage
- Enter a deviation percentage value indicating how much higher or lower the demand must be in order for the item to be considered a trend item.
- Update trend code
- Set to YES to indicate that Trend code in the Item/Inventory management file should be set to YES for all item/warehouse combinations that show a trend pattern.
- Update in work file
- Set to NO.
- The number of periods showing an increase or decrease in demand.
- The present value for Trend code in the Item/Inventory management file.
- The new value for Trend code in the Item/Inventory management file. This is always set to YES.
Note: The new trend code value is always displayed in the report. However, this field is only updated in the Item/Inventory management file if Update trend code is set to YES.
Click OK. The system updates the Item/Inventory management file and prints a report containing all items that show a trend pattern in demand. For each item, the following is printed:
Exit the routine.