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This routine allows you to simulate the forecast calculation for an item/warehouse combination. It calculates period forecast for the single forecast period entered on the panel.
On the panel you can enter different methods and parameters to use, and analyse the effect of changing these. The default values on the panel are the “production” methods and parameters for the item/warehouse combination in this simulation.
Note: The calculations you make here do not result in an update of the Inventory Control system. These calculations are simulated.
- Item
- Enter the item code of the item/warehouse combination for which you want to calculate simulated forecast.
- Warehouse
- Enter the warehouse code of the item/warehouse combination for which you want to calculate simulated forecast.
- Forecast period
- Displays the present forecast period. If you leave the present period, the system calculates forecast for the present period. You cannot enter a period greater than the present forecast period, but you can enter a historical period that exists in the active Forecast file. If you enter a historical period, the system only calculates forecast for the entered period.
Forecast calculation simulation (INVD5002)
On this panel you select the method, and establish the parameters that you want to use to calculate the simulated forecast for the item/warehouse combination displayed in the header.
When you access this panel, data already exists for a forecast calculation. This data is retrieved from Work with forecast control codes. You can change the values displayed on this panel, and click OK to recalculate a simulated forecast.
Note: The calculations you make here do not result in an update of the Inventory Control system. These calculations are simulated.
Function keys
Select method
Select the method you will use to calculate simulated forecast for this item/warehouse combination. The three methods that you can choose from are listed below. You can choose only one method.
- Exp smooth
- Indicate if you want to use Exponential smoothing to calculate simulated forecast for this item/warehouse combination.
- Moving avg
- Indicate if you want to use Moving average to calculate simulated forecast for this item/warehouse combination.
- Frcst copy
- Indicate if you want to use Forecast copy to calculate simulated forecast for this item/warehouse combination.
Enter parameters
Enter the parameters needed to calculate the simulated forecast according to the forecast method chosen above. You are required to complete certain fields below, depending on the selected forecast method.
- Alpha value
- Mandatory entry. Enter an alpha value, which must be in the range of 0.01 to 1.00.
- Periods MA
- Mandatory entry. Enter the number of periods MA, if moving average is selected as the method of forecast. This value represents the number of forecast periods upon which to base the forecast calculation.
- Alpha update
- Indicate if the system should automatically update the alpha value during calculation. If NO, the alpha value entered in the Min alpha field below is used for this simulation.
- Min alpha
- Mandatory entry if the Alpha update field is set to YES. Enter the minimum alpha, which must be in the range of 0.01 to 1.00.
- Max alpha
- Mandatory entry if the Alpha update field is set to YES. Enter the maximum alpha, which must be greater than the minimum alpha. Each time the system calculates a new alpha value, it checks that it is greater than the minimum alpha and less than the maximum alpha.
Enter additional parameters
Several additional parameters are needed for calculating forecast. These parameters are retrieved from Inventory Control and Distribution.
- Trend code
- Displays the trend code, but can be changed.
- Season
- Displays the season profile, but can be changed.
- Adj workdays
- Displays the adjust workdays code, but can be changed.
- Auto demand
- Displays the auto adjust demand code, but can be changed.
- Adjust perc
- Displays the auto demand adjustment percentage, but can be changed.
- Workdays/per
- Displays the workdays per period and cannot be changed.
- Apply method
- Indicate if the simulation should include any possible sales promotion for this item/warehouse combination for the period entered on the previous panel.
- Sales prom
- Note: This field is blank if the Apply method field is set to NO.
- Est inc %
- Only shown if the estimated increase was defined with a percentage value when the forecast details were generated. Displays the latest percentage used to calculate an estimated increase/decrease in demand per item/warehouse combination for the specified period. Note: The estimated value can be maintained on the Work with sales promotions, Forecast details panel.
- Est inc qty
- Only shown if the estimated increase was defined with a quantity when the forecast details were generated. Displays the latest quantity used to calculate an estimated increase/decrease in demand per item/warehouse combination for the specified period. Note: The estimated value can be maintained on the Work with sales promotions, Forecast details panel.
- Avg per wght
- Displays the average season period weight and cannot be changed.
Calculated values
After you have entered the data for this simulation, click OK to display the simulated forecast values in the fields below. These fields cannot be changed.
- Cust. frcst
- Displays the Customer forecast for this item/warehouse combination, based on the Delivery schedules for this item/warehouse combination.
- Base frcst
- Displays the Base forecast for this item/warehouse combination, based on the parameters entered above.
- Period frcst
- Displays the period forecast for this item/warehouse combination, based on the parameters entered above.
- Level frcst
- Displays the level forecast for this item/warehouse combination, based on the parameters entered above.
- Trend frcst
- Displays the trend forecast for this item/warehouse combination if the Trend code field above is YES.
- Prev period
- Displays the forecast period previous to the period in which this forecast calculation began. If this forecast uses a season profile, then the period in this field is the first previous period in which the season index was greater than zero.
- Calc demand
- Displays the demand value (from the previous forecast period) used in calculating the forecast in this simulation. It is the final, normalised net demand value used, calculated in different ways depending on selected method.
- Demand adj
- Displays the calculated demand adjustment value, if an automatic demand adjustment was made during this calculation. Note that this is not the value in the Demand adjustment field in the Forecast file. If there was no automatic adjustment made, this field contains the demand adjustment from the Forecast file.
- MAD
- Displays the calculated mean average deviation.
- MRD
- Displays the calculated mean relative deviation.
- Alpha
- Displays the calculated alpha value, if automatic alpha update is used. If manual alpha is used, this will be the alpha value entered above on the panel. Note that the alpha value here is not used to calculate alpha in this period, instead it is the alpha value calculated this period to be used in calculating forecast in the next period.